More on the Way
From the 1115 AM forecast discussion out of the National Weather Service's Monterey office:

NEXT BIG PROBLEM IS IS SYSTEM JUST CROSSING 150W BETWEEN 30 AND 50N LATITUDE. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NORTH COAST THURSDAY EVENING AND SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL STILL BE FOCUSED IN THE NORTH BAY BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE CENTRAL COAST INTO THE SANTA LUCIAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT THIS STROM IS CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THE CURRENT STORM EXPECT MAJOR FLOOD PROBLEMS IN THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OF 7 FEET COMBINED WITH HIGH SURF OF 16 TO 18 FEET AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MAJOR RUNOFF COULD CAUSE SOME COASTAL FLOODING SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STORM IS NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING FOR NEW YEARS DAY.

LATEST GFS HAS A 969 MB LOW FORECAST OFF THE OREGON COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WOULD PROBABLY GENERATE WINDS ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND AGAIN A VERY STRONG THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING AS SEAS WILL EXCEED 20 FEET LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IT IS ALWAYS DANGEROUS TO MAKE COMPARISONS BUT HAVING LIVED THOROUGH FEBRUARY 1986...THIS CURRENT PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO HAVE THAT LOOK TO IT. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS CONTINUE THE ONSLAUGHT OF RAIN INTO THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK THUS MAKING THIS A VERY EXTENDED RAINY PERIOD. FEBRUARY 1986 WAS ALSO A VERY EXTENDED RAINY PERIOD WITH A GOOD SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP AS THESE STORMS HAVE HAD.

AGAIN WITH THE SATURATED GROUNDS AND EXPECTED WINDY CONDITIONS WITH EACH STORM COULD SEE SOME MAJOR POWER OUTAGES AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING OVER THE NEXT WEEK. ALL CONCERNED SHOULD MAKE SURE THEY HAVE ADEQUATE EMERGENCY SUPPLIES OF FOOD...WATER...AND BATTERIES FOR FLASHLIGHTS AND PORTABLE RADIOS. THIS COULD BE A VERY SERIOUS AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS NEXT 5 TO 10 DAYS.